Sean t rcp twitter.
Jun 1, 2022 · “My take: You can make a case for Phantom Menace largely because, as Machete Order proves, you can pretty much watch the entire series without it and not miss anything. But it isn't a horrible movie, though I'm the weirdo who sort of liked the Palpatine political machinations.”
“So many other low points, like horses on Star Destroyers, or Chewie fake dying, or C3P0 fake losing his memory, or the weird Kimiji storyline, or a Palpatine appropriating the Skywalker name. But here's the thing, most of the problems were not of Ep. IX's making. 7/”“@Nate_Cohn Yeah, part of the problem is the modern right's disdain for academia/anti-Intellectual-ism, combined with the fact that the CRT stuff has a fair amount of overlap with traditional racial liberalism stuff. So it's easy to lump them together.”Married to. @emytrende. , dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart. Sean T at RCP is a free elf. 2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society …We all know that some people are just predisposed to say stupid things. Still, it’s one thing to see it on Twitter and another to hear it from the mouth of the person sleeping next to you. It’s not your fault.
“This is insane. 20 years ago the all-in at Duke Law (tuition, living expenses, books) was about $40k. I don’t think the education provided has improved *that* much.”
Good @ThePlumLineGS post on fixing the Electoral Count Act, something that should have bipartisan support. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/30/how ... “McAuliffe starting to get some more results above the line. Also, moving the threshold up to 85% reporting. City of Richmond hasn't started to come in yet, and Fairfax is still largely outstanding. This is still very interesting.”
Despite the tremendous amount of planning that goes into the Super Bowl, things don’t always go as expected. Not to mention, with folks taking to Twitter and TikTok these days, anything is apt to go viral — for better or worse — on the nigh...“McCaskill is hitting the number she needs in St. Louis County and City, so I understand why they aren't calling the race, but she's running 10-20 behind in these rural counties. Just unreal.”From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll. Practice here first or read more on our help page! More from @SeanTrende. Sean T at RCP ...“We're reaching the end of the second quarter, which is when election outcomes are more-or-less baked in. At this point, you really have to have Republicans as overwhelming favorites to take the House with solid margins, and strong favorites to take the Senate.”
Jun 15, 2022 · @SeanTrende This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016. Except this I genuinely didn't think I'd see for another 20 years or so. Just astonishing. 12:40 AM · Jun 15, 2022 236 96 1,051 81 Bookmarks
Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple of years, my 2c: Obvs the site is miserable, but there's an entire generation of top-notch young analysts like @JMilesColeman who probably would have gone unnoticed but for Twitter. 1/ 31 Oct 2022 01:42:44
In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersFrom a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll. Practice here first or read more on our help page! More from @SeanTrende. Sean T at RCP ...Sep 12, 2021 · “I've been mulling over some of the defenses of Australia's anti-COVID regime from liberal friends, and the ACLU's defense of vaccine mandates. I can't decide if this is a one-off, or some greater shift in American liberalism. 1/” “@ThePlumLineGS @billscher So I'm pretty comfortable saying they'd have gotten something through absent the strictures of reconciliation. And remember, with regular order you don't have to go all-or-nothing. You can do a *ton* through appropriations riders, which give nervous members cover.”Sean T at RCP is a free elf on Twitter ... Log in"There are obviously answers to all of this -- if there weren't I would not have led with him losing four of five times or so. The point is, though, that he's not THAT far off where he needs to be to be back in this. 9/9"“@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.”
Nov 2, 2021 · “I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/” “@Izengabe_ @fawfulfan More to the point, the typical way we do a quick-and-dirty assessment of a state's political orientation is PVI, and Kentucky is a point redder than Vermont is blue. If one wants to make a nuanced critique of CPVI here that's fine, but at that point you've lost the plot.”Apr 16, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Sean T at RCP. Follow @SeanTrende. Nov 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read Bookmark . Save as PDF . My Authors My basic view of this election hasn’t changed over the cycle; it’s the same frame I carry into every election: they are referenda on the party in power, not choices. 1/In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users
“@shundle So if what we're seeing is more about Ds being hyperenthusiastic, rather than people changing minds, we might expect to see something like what I've sketched out.”
“@RadioFreeTom @ThePlumLineGS I'm saying a restoration might have been possible by taking the "grudging acceptance" route. I think it's probably a nonstarter having taken the civil war route. Which I think is probably a righteous tack, but let's be real about the consequences. 4/4”“@sahilkapur @RobGeorge @EsotericCD On 2), I never understood the white hot, burning hatred of Buttigieg among younger progressives. But it is very much there.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersOct 22, 2022 · “I think these analyses provide useful context on where this election stands. The biggest limitation on these analyses isn't that the GOP holds a large number of seats to begin. It is that they describe linear relationships between seat gain which probably don't hold this cycle.” “As I've said before, I think the alternatives offered up by the Tea Party purifiers and populists have largely been appalling. But if you look back over the past 40 years, its not hard to understand how this happened. 17/17”Mar 29, 2018 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users Jordan's supporters have made some GOP lawmakers more entrenched in their opposition to his bid for the speaker's gavel. "They're harassing our spouses," says Rep. Don Bacon.Nov 8, 2018 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @ Protected Tweets @
Things will change, and the voters will get another say in two years. Sean Trende is senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is a co-author of the 2014 Almanac of American Politics and ...
“@SethAMandel @varadmehta The basic observation about Biden being boring and that making him a tough opponent is basically correct, but it is also why the attempts to shoehorn his first 100 days into a transformative, FDR-like presidency is …
“One problem Biden has is that he doesn't have much "crawl-over-broken-glass-twice-to-vote-for-him" type support. That inoculated Obama and Trump from a total wipeout. He really could completely collapse.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“OK, let's settle this: Worst Star Wars main storyline movie. I'll give my take at the end, but I do think a case can be made for any of these.”13 Şub 2013 ... ... T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act to clarify that houses of worship are eligible for certain disaster relief and ...It's pretty amazing that we have a grand total of 3 decent, non interest-group sponsored polls of Fetterman-Oz. 08 Aug 2022 [Sean T at RCP, RT'ed by Nate Cohn] Reminder: don't be a crosstab truther. You're dealing with small sample sizes, sometimes subjected to multidimensional weighting. They're mostly useful for patterns that appear across multiple polls, not for disputing the topline's accuracy. twitter“I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/”So we were probably already headed for a significant shift in seats, compounded by this. Add in that there's probably going to be a substantial movement of populations *within* states, and things are going to get bad, real quick. 2/In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users
Jun 23, 2022 · “The truth is, I think the Biden will have a better chance at re-election than the environment (whatever it is in 2024) will suggest, because Trump will make the election about him rather the environment. Should Trump lose the primary, he'll go nuclear on the GOP nominee.” Jul 5, 2018 · “Put differently, if you had placed Kennedy on the 1968 Warren Court, he would have appeared to be a freakishly right-of-center justice. For that matter, Souter probably would have voted with Harlan, who held down the right flank of that Court. 6/” “That leaves Kav and Alito. Alito has authored 4 opinions this term, Kavanaugh 5. Realistically it could be either of them. But there's a theory that Alito's lengthy dissent in Fulton was originally a majority opinion. If this is true, both would have had 5 opinions as of Feb.”“This happened in all the Senate races. Pryor was in the game against Cotton through much of the summer, but basically got the same vote share he'd been polling at from May onward; Cotton got all the undecideds, almost all of whom disapproved of the president.”Instagram:https://instagram. how to create a workshop agendagary schwartz obituaryblend toolclub car ds 48v wiring diagram Sean T at RCP is a free elf. @SeanTrende. This is sort of how I felt seeing some of the shifts in Appalachia in 2010, or blue collar areas in 2016. Except this I genuinely didn't think I'd see for another 20 years or so. Just astonishing. 12:40 AM · Jun 15, 2022. 236. 96. 1,051. 81. Bookmarks.In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users austin texas mia aestheticsjacob haqq misra Log in. Sign upMay 21, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users when is ku basketball next game Nov 8, 2018 · “I've gotten a few questions about the "split decision" narrative, and whether it should change if Ds pull out wins in FL-Sen and AZ-Sen (good chance in both!). This gets to one of my biggest pet peeves about elections analysis and sports analysis. 1/” Sean T at RCP. SeanTrende. I once believed this first sentence. I don't anymore. To be sure, I love the "but Rubio had a boat" joke, but for serious analysis: Aside from Christie exposing Rubio Read more. So in the wake of my interview with @IChotiner and pieces the past couple of weeks, people have asked why I am bullish on Trump. The answer ...